How Regulation can Cause an Aircraft Accident

by

L. D. Alford

Whatever the ultimate result of the investigation into Air France 447’s loss, a chain of government regulatory events plagues every aircraft flying from Europe. These regulations promote bad decision making and do increase flight risk. What we do know about this accident is the pilots were flying into a heavy storm line in the Atlantic Ocean. No aircraft can survive for long in a thunderstorm or any other very strong atmospheric phenomenon. Turbulence in clear air can be enough to destroy an aircraft, and any high power storm can easily turn an aircraft into scrap metal. This is why aircraft routinely keep at least ten miles from any known heavy precipitation or visible thunderstorm.

The first problem flight 447 had to deal with is that most flag aircraft are equipped with low power color radar. Low power color radar cannot see through the first layers of a storm front and identify the storms on the other side. This problem is called radar attenuation. Old style radars could see much better through the first layer of a storm front, but unfortunately most of those old high power sets are gone. Environmental, safety, cost, and weight concerns caused them to be replaced. Low power color radar is not necessarily a bad thing as long as you have air traffic and weather radar all around you such as in the US and Europe—but not in the middle of the Atlantic.

Second, when flight 447 encountered a storm front, the crew had a strong incentive to not turn around—that is, until there was no other escape. The reason for this is a European Union law that causes their socialistic and already uncompetitive airlines to pay passengers for delays and late arrivals. To reduce these costs to their airlines, the pilots had a strong reason to continue flight into dangerous conditions. A similar event occurred a few years ago when a European 747 continued fight after the loss of an engine on takeoff. Such an action would be unthinkable without perverse incentives produced by a dangerous law.

Although it is highly unlikely the loss of flight 447 was caused by lightning, composite parts on aircraft and highly electronic based flight control systems make the possibility greater. Aircraft are like a Faraday cage; a lightening strike goes around the skin and not the structure. A strike tends to exit an aircraft from less conductive areas, such as those that are composite. Composite surfaces also tend to force electrical strikes into the structure. Additionally, highly electronic aircraft systems such as electronic flight controls and electronic flight control systems are very susceptible to lightening strikes. I have lost both composite structure and electronic systems to airborne lightning strikes and static discharges. European aircraft, especially, are being designed with composite structures and highly electronic flight control systems in an environment of government control of research and development. This government interference leads potentially to less safe aircraft.

The chain of events that caused the loss of flight 447 may have started in the regulations that govern European aircraft flight, design, and development. In general, the less regulation, the less the unintended consequences—especially those that result in the loss of aircraft and human life.

Lionel D. Alford, Jr. is a retired Air Force Lieutenant Colonel. He currently designs aircraft for Defense Research Associates a Dayton, Ohio company. He is an experimental test pilot with over 6200 hours in more than 64 different kinds of aircraft, a member of the Society of Experimental Test Pilots, and holds an Airline Transport Pilot certificate in three jet aircraft. Alford served as the Chief of System Safety Engineering for Global Reach System Program Office; Chief, Airframe, Propulsion, Avionics, and Electronic Warfare Team at Headquarters Air Force Materiel Command; Chief, Special Operations Forces Test and Evaluation Division at Wright-Patterson; Chief, Testing Commercial Aircraft for Military Acquisition Office at Edwards Air Force Base, California; and was the chief test pilot for a number of Air Force acquisitions. He is a graduate of the USAF Test Pilot School. Defense Systems Management College Advanced Program Management Course, Air War College, and Air Command and Staff College. Alford is an author and lecturer with over 41 articles featured in international publications, 3 historical fiction novels, and 3 science fiction novels in publication. He is a doctoral candidate in aeronautical engineering at the University of Dayton and holds a M.S. in mechanical engineering from Boston University and a B.S. in chemistry from Pacific Lutheran University.